Different products, different regions — same truth: food supply has become unpredictable.
Every week, there’s another headline shaking the food supply chain.
US tariffs on Brazilian coffee. Shipping routes disrupted in the Red Sea. Cocoa harvests collapsing in West Africa.
Different products, different regions — same truth: food supply has become unpredictable.
For global giants, volatility is inconvenient but manageable. They have multiple sourcing hubs, risk teams, and financial buffers.
For mid-sized food and ingredient companies, it’s existential. One failed harvest, one delayed shipment — and a customer can be lost.
Procurement teams in these companies are strong in contracts, margins, and supplier management. But too often, they are removed from the field. They don’t fully capture the realities of climate volatility, local politics, or farming practices that shape what ultimately arrives on their clients’ shelves.
Predictability is the Missing Link
Traditionally, companies define supply security as:
- Enough volume
- Meeting quality specs
- Passing compliance checks
But in today’s world, those three conditions are not enough. Competitive advantage now comes from constancy over time — the ability to deliver, season after season, despite shocks.
Without predictability, contracts weaken, margins erode, and client trust fades.
Compliance Protects, Predictability Competes
Regulation is everywhere: the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), traceability, certifications. Compliance protects market access.
But compliance alone doesn’t secure supply.
- It won’t stop a drought from halving a harvest.
- It won’t stop unrest from blocking a shipping route.
- It won’t guarantee your supplier delivers next season.
One European coffee buyer put it bluntly: “We had all the documents, all the certifications. But when the harvest collapsed, none of that mattered. The beans simply weren’t there.”
A System for Predictability
From my experience, predictability requires a system — not luck. I call it the Predictable Supply Operating System (POS). It rests on four pillars:
- Resilient Production – Farming practices that withstand climate shocks.
- Reliable Partnerships – Long-term trust replacing short-term transactions.
- Transparent Compliance – Integrated, not tick-box bureaucracy.
- Market Integration – Turning reliability into commercial advantage.
When companies align these four pillars, they transform fragile sourcing into predictable supply — the new competitive currency.
Takeaway
Contracts don’t move goods. Farmers do.
And unless procurement integrates field realities into strategy, supply will always remain fragile.
I developed a FREE Predictable Supply Assessment for agri-food companies to benchmark resilience and uncover hidden risks. Start your free assessment here
Fabrício Peres also discuss about the invisible cost of a wek reputation in agribusiness. Access to read it
Click here to receive Farmnews studies via WhatsApp!
About the Author
Fabricio is a strategic advisor for food and agri-input companies sourcing from Latin America. With over 20 years of experience in agribusiness, sustainability, and international trade, he helps companies transform supply chain risk into trust, compliance and market advantage. Based in Switzerland and deeply connected to the agricultural realities of Brazil, he offers a pragmatic, forward-thinking view of sustainable sourcing. 👉 To stay ahead with insights on resilient sourcing, sustainable food systems and agribusiness strategy, subscribe to Fabricio’s newsletter: *Beyond Harvest*.
